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AAP

AAP

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

$60.86-0.29%
Mkt Cap: $3.67BDY: 1.64%

Performance

AAP (AAP) Stock Analysis 2026

Rule-based · Updated daily · Not financial advice

AAP (AAP) operates in the Auto Parts space within the Consumer Cyclical sector. With a market cap of $3.7B, it qualifies as a small-cap company. Growth is moderate and the business remains profitable, offering a balanced risk/reward profile compared to high-multiple peers.

Bull Case1
  • Forward P/E (15.2×) is lower than trailing P/E (54.3×) — analysts expect earnings to improve
Bear Case4
  • High P/E of 54.3× implies high expectations already priced in — leaves little room for disappointment
  • Earnings fell 3% YoY — profitability is under pressure
  • Thin profit margin of 0.5% — little buffer against cost increases
  • High debt-to-equity of 255.31× increases financial risk, especially with elevated interest rates

Verdict

Avoid

Significant fundamental concerns outweigh positives. High risk at current levels.

AI Insight

Powered by Claude

AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Related Articles

Revenue & Results

Dividends

Current DY

1.64%

5Y Avg Annual

$2.1000

Last Payment

$0.2500

Ex-Date

04/10/2026

Annual dividends paid per share

2011
2019
2026
Ex-DatePaymentAmountEst. DY
Latest04/10/2026
04/24/2026$0.25001.64%
01/09/2026
01/23/2026$0.25001.64%
10/10/2025
10/24/2025$0.25001.64%
07/11/2025
07/25/2025$0.25001.64%
04/11/2025
04/25/2025$0.25001.64%
01/10/2025
01/24/2025$0.25001.64%
10/11/2024
10/25/2024$0.25001.64%
07/12/2024
07/26/2024$0.25001.64%

Magic Number

Shares needed to self-fund your next purchase

$60.86

Price

÷

$0.2500

Last div. (quarterly)

=

244

shares

Own 244 AAP shares ($14,849.84) and each quarterly dividend pays for 1 new share — the snowball runs on its own.

Investment target

$14,849.84

New shares / year

+4 shares

If You Had Invested…

Hypothetical return based on historical prices

$

* Dividend reinvestment calculated at ex-date price. For informational purposes only.

Earnings

Next Earnings

Aug 13, 2026

58

days

EPS (TTM)

$1.12

P/E (TTM)

54.3

Fwd P/E

15.2

Earnings History

SEC EDGAR · official filings

SEC filings

SEC Filings

Official EDGAR documents

All filings

Key Statistics

Valuation

Market Cap$3.67B
P/E Ratio54.34
Forward P/E15.18
P/B Ratio
PEG Ratio1.66
EPS (TTM)$1.12

Trading

Open
Day High
Day Low
52W High$70.00
52W Low$37.89
Volume
Avg Volume (3M)1,781,882
Beta1.06

Dividends

Dividend Yield1.64%
Annual Rate$1.00
Ex-Div Date2026-07-10
Payout Ratio89.29%

Profitability

Profit Margin0.51%
Operating Margin3.79%
ROE3.08%
ROA1.75%
Revenue Growth1.20%
Earnings Growth-2.50%

Balance Sheet

Total Revenue$8.63B
Total Debt$5.65B
Debt / Equity255.31
Current Ratio1.78
Free Cash Flow$-228,000,000

Fair Value Estimates

Current price: $60.86

Graham Number

√(22.5 × EPS × Book Value)

$30.49

-49.9% downside

Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value formula. Assumes a fair stock trades at no more than 22.5× the product of EPS and book value per share.

Bazin Ceiling Price

Avg. Annual DPS (5Y) ÷ 6%

$44.17

-27.4% downside

Décio Bazin's dividend-based ceiling. The max price you should pay so that dividends alone deliver at least 6% annual yield on your cost basis.

These are simplified estimates. Not financial advice.

Buy & Hold Checklist

Quality criteria for long-term holding

7/10

70% score

Pays dividends

15Y hist.

15+ years of dividend history

Dividend consistency (5Y+)

15 yrs

Uninterrupted dividend payments for at least 5 years

ROE above 10%

3.1%

Return on equity — measures how efficiently capital is used

Positive profit margin

0.5%

Net profit margin must be positive — company earns more than it spends

Revenue growth (annual)

+1.2%

Annual revenue must be growing compared to the prior year

Earnings growth (annual)

-2.5%

Annual earnings must be growing compared to the prior year

Debt/Equity below 2×

255.31×

Low financial leverage reduces risk of distress

Current ratio above 1

1.78×

Short-term assets must cover short-term liabilities

Daily liquidity above $5M

$108M/day

High trading volume ensures easy entry and exit

Dividend yield above 0%

1.64%

Stock must distribute income to shareholders

Related Assets

Consumer Cyclical

About AAP

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts. The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also provides air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluid; electrical wire and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives, and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors, and exterior accessories; washes, waxes, and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oil; oil filters; part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluid. Further, it provides battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning; electrical system testing, including batteries, starters, and alternators; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. The company serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. It operates stores and independently owned branded stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and various Caribbean islands primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade brands. The company also offers its products online. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Sector

Consumer Cyclical

Industry

Auto Parts

Location

Raleigh, United States

Employees

28,274