SpaceX's life as a public company got off to a bumpy start. After going public in June at $135 a share, the stock slid to an all-time low near $108. But over the past couple of weeks it has staged a comeback, climbing back above its IPO price, and it has done so while facing one of the biggest tests a young stock can face: a lock-up expiration. Here is where things stand.
Where does SpaceX (SPCX) stock stand now?
As of mid-August, SpaceX (SPCX) trades near $140, back above its $135 IPO price and well off the roughly $108 low it hit in early August. The recovery got a boost when CEO Elon Musk held an all-hands meeting and the company launched another batch of Starlink satellites, sending the stock up around 11% in a single session. After a shaky opening chapter, the mood has clearly improved.
What is a lock-up expiration, and why does it matter for SpaceX?
A lock-up is a period after an IPO, usually 90 to 180 days, during which company insiders and early investors are barred from selling their shares. When it expires, all of those shares can suddenly hit the market, and the fear is simple: a flood of new selling can crush the price.
For SpaceX, the numbers are enormous. Around $123 billion worth of insider shares became eligible to trade as the lock-up began to unwind in early August, a scale many times larger than a typical company. That is exactly why investors have been watching it so nervously.
Did the lock-up crash the stock?
Not so far, and that is the encouraging part. When the first big tranche of roughly 911 million shares became eligible on August 6, the stock actually rose about 6% rather than collapsing. The feared wave of selling simply did not materialize.
Two things helped. First, SpaceX structured the release in stages rather than all at once: a chunk after Q2 earnings, then smaller tranches every few weeks through October, and the bulk of the remaining shares not until December 8. That staggering softens the blow. Second, genuine demand for the stock absorbed the supply. How the stock handles the remaining tranches into year end is the thing to watch.
How is SpaceX's business actually doing?
Strong, and that is the foundation under the recovery. In the second quarter, SpaceX reported revenue of $7.81 billion, up about 92% from a year earlier. The engine is Starlink, its satellite internet business, which now makes up roughly 70% of revenue at about $4.29 billion in the quarter and boasts around 22 million mobile subscribers.
The catch is spending. SpaceX plowed roughly $15.8 billion into the business during the quarter, funding Starship, Starlink expansion and its AI ambitions, which we covered in SpaceX picks Nvidia. This is a company growing explosively but also burning cash at an enormous rate, the classic tension investors have to weigh.
What should investors watch next?
Three things. First, the remaining lock-up tranches rolling out through December 8, since each one adds potential supply. Second, Starlink growth, the number that really drives the story. Third, Starship and capex, because SpaceX's spending is as big as its ambitions. If you are looking at the wider sector rather than a single volatile name, our guide to the best space stocks is a broader place to start.
Bottom line
SpaceX has clawed back above its $135 IPO price, survived the first big wave of its lock-up without a crash, and is riding a Starlink business growing nearly 100% a year. The offsetting risks are real: more shares still unlocking into December, and a staggering cash burn. It is one of the most exciting and most volatile stocks on the market right now, which means it deserves a small, eyes-open position at most, not a bet you cannot afford to see swing hard in either direction.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.Screen stocks and compare valuations with our Stock Screener.
