There is one earnings report that matters more than any other this season, and it belongs to Nvidia (NVDA). As the largest company in the world and the beating heart of the AI trade, Nvidia's results on August 26 will move far more than its own stock. They will set the tone for the whole market. Here is what to expect.
When does Nvidia report earnings?
Nvidia reports its second-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, after the market closes. The quarter ended on July 26. Mark it on your economic calendar, because the after-hours reaction often ripples into the next day's open across the entire market.
What are analysts expecting?
Big numbers, as usual. Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $93 billion to $95 billion, which would be about 96% growth from a year ago, driven by soaring demand for AI accelerators and the ramp of Nvidia's new Blackwell chips. Notably, that is above Nvidia's own guidance of around $91 billion (plus or minus 2%), which tells you the market is already pricing in a beat.
The stock trades near $225, giving Nvidia a market cap around $5 trillion, the biggest in the world, as we cover in what is market cap. Its forward P/E ratio sits near 18, which is not cheap, but not the nosebleed level some expect for a company still growing this fast.
What will investors watch beyond the headline number?
For a stock priced this richly, beating on revenue is not enough. The market will zero in on three things:
1. The Blackwell ramp. Blackwell is Nvidia's next-generation chip, built for the AI inference workloads that power tools like chatbots. How fast it is shipping, and at what margin, is the real story.
2. Data center revenue. This is the engine, the vast majority of Nvidia's sales. Any sign of it slowing would rattle the whole semiconductor sector.
3. The guidance. As always, Nvidia's forecast for next quarter matters more than the quarter it just reported. A cautious outlook could sink the stock even on a strong beat.
What is the China wildcard?
China is the biggest uncertainty. US export restrictions have limited what Nvidia can sell there, and the company's current outlook assumes no shipments of its China-specific H20 chips at all. That makes China a two-way risk: any thaw in the rules would be upside not currently baked in, while tighter curbs would be a fresh headwind. Watch the commentary here closely.
Why does Nvidia's earnings move the whole market?
Because of its sheer size. At around $5 trillion, Nvidia is such a heavy weight in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq that its stock alone can swing the entire index. Beyond the math, Nvidia has become the market's AI barometer. If its results are strong, the whole AI trade breathes easier. If they disappoint, everything from chipmakers to cloud stocks feels it.
What are the risks?
The biggest risk is expectations themselves. When a stock is priced for perfection, even a great report can trigger a sell-off if it is not quite great enough, the classic "beat and still fall" reaction. On top of that, competition from AMD (AMD) and custom chips from the big cloud companies is slowly nibbling at Nvidia's roughly 80% market share. None of that is a crisis, but at this valuation, the bar is extremely high.
Bottom line
Nvidia reports on August 26, and it is the most important number of the season. Expect a huge revenue figure near $93 to $95 billion, but remember that with the stock near record highs, the reaction hinges on Blackwell, data center growth, guidance and China, not just the headline beat. Personally, I would not bet on the direction of the first move, which is often a coin flip. The signal that matters is what the guidance and the AI demand picture say about the next year.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.Screen stocks and compare valuations with our Stock Screener.
